Crystal Palace vs. Wolverhampton prediction: Premier League odds, picks

A month ago, Crystal Palace was getting dangerously close to falling into the relegation battle.

The Eagles were sitting in 12th place in the Premier League, but there were just four points separating them from the drop zone, and they had four matches in a row against teams that were chasing them.

Rather than sticking with manager Patrick Vieira — who guided Palace to a very successful 2021-22 season — the Eagles decided to play things safe and bring back Roy Hodgson, the man Vieira replaced.

The results so far have been splendid, as Hodgson’s Crystal Palace has gone 3-1-0 (W-D-L) in the 75-year-old’s first four games back in the dugout. 

It’s been quite the “new-manager bounce” for Palace, and the coaching change may have saved its season.

Palace is now nine points above the relegation zone with six matches to play and has a chance to get to the 40-point mark (traditionally, getting 40 points all but guarantees safety in the Premier League) with a win over Wolverhampton on Tuesday afternoon.

Palace’s bump under Hodgson brings up a fun debate for fans and handicappers.

The new-manager bounce is an angle that bettors across all sports will look to exploit.

Whether in soccer, hockey, or any other sport, teams do seem to respond to a new voice right away, and Palace is now just another example of this phenomenon holding some weight. 

But if you take a little bit of a deeper look, you’ll notice that Palace and old manager Vieira were likely just a victim of poor luck and a tough schedule more than anything else.

While it’s hard to look away from a 12-match winless streak — Palace went 0-5-7 from Jan. 1 to April 1 — the Eagles were done no favors by the schedule-makers in that span. 

They played Tottenham, Chelsea, Manchester United (twice), Brighton (twice), Liverpool, Brentford, Newcastle, Arsenal, Manchester City and Aston Villa in that span.

The only team in that group that is outside the top 10 is Chelsea, and it’s 11th in a season in which it was projected to finish third or fourth.

It was a laughably hard schedule and completely skewed Palace’s numbers and likely cost Vieira his job.

Any team in the Premier League outside of Manchester City would likely struggle to keep its head above water with that kind of schedule, so the fact that Palace was able to stay out of the drop zone during that run may actually be more evidence that this team is better than given credit for and should not be underestimated as we head down the stretch. 

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That brings us to Tuesday afternoon’s fixture against relegation-threatened Wolverhampton. While Palace had to grit through a brutal schedule in the first few months of 2023,

Wolves have enjoyed a pretty soft run-in and took advantage by collecting a handful of important points as they look to earn themselves another season of Premier League football.

A lot of the credit has gone to manager Julen Lopetegui for guiding Wolves to a 7-3-7 record since the World Cup. Another new-manager bounce.

But not all new-manager bounces are created equal. While Palace has earned its resurgence, Wolves seem to have taken advantage of some good fortune and a favorable fixture list. Wolves have scored 19 goals and allowed 20 over their last 17 games, meaning they’re winning a lot of tight contests.

That luck will eventually run out and Wolves should start to regress toward where their expected goals data — they have a -11.2 xG difference since the World Cup — puts them.

The standings may suggest these teams are close to equals, but Palace is the better team and is a live +230 (FanDuel) underdog on the road on Tuesday.