World Cup odds, pick on Thursday

The World Cup is always chaotic, unexpected, and full of surprises. And no team has embodied that spirit better than Japan through the first 10 days of the competition.

After pulling off a stunning upset of Germany on Matchday 1, Samurai Blue lost as heavy favorites to Costa Rica in their second game, setting up a situation where, in all likelihood, they’ll need to beat Spain on Thursday to make it into the Round of 16.

Japan is a +750 underdog on FanDuel to pull off a second stunner. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. on Thursday, Dec. 1 on Fox.

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Spain vs. Japan prediction

Like when they played Germany, there are some stylistic advantages that Japan has over Spain. There’s no question that La Furia Roja is in a different universe in terms of talent. Still, Japan’s ability to punish mistakes with quick-strike counterattacks makes them a very dangerous opponent against teams that like to have a lot of the ball and play out from the back.

We saw Japan execute that gameplan to aplomb against Germany, as they caught Die Mannschaft too far up the pitch on a number of occasions and were able to find the back of the net twice en route to a 2-1 victory. 

Spain is a better, more technical team than German,y and they aren’t as aggressive as Die Mannschaft, but they do share a similar crack in the armor. La Furia Roja are a symphony when they have the ball, but they’re not a strong team out of possession, and they struggle defending in transition. 

Betting on the World Cup?

In all likelihood, this game will play out in a similar pattern to what we saw in Germany vs. Japan last week. Spain will have a ton of the ball and will spend most of the game in Japan’s half, but if (and it’s a big if) Samurai Blue can remain patient and pick their spots, they have a chance of really giving La Furia Roja some issues in a game that Spain needs to get at least a point from to advance. 

Whether or not Japan’s defense can cope with Spain’s offensive firepower and creative talent is a very fair question to ask, but that’s why the Samurai Blue are such a big underdog. And considering that they closed around +600 against Germany, who is not that much worse than Spain, this price seems like a bit of an overreaction to a dreadful showing against Costa Rica rather than a fair representation of Japan’s chances to win on Thursday.

Spain vs. Japan pick

Japan +750 (FanDuel)