World Cup odds, pick for Friday

According to the oddsmakers, it’s Brazil vs. the field at the 2022 World Cup. Fresh off a 4-1 thrashing of South Korea, the Selecao are the clear favorites to lift the trophy at +175, well ahead of France, who are the second choice at +400 ahead of the quarterfinals. 

Brazil is a massive -750 favorite on BetMGM to advance past Croatia.

Kickoff is scheduled for 10 a.m. ET Friday morning. The game can be seen on FOX.

Here is our betting preview for the quarterfinal matchup:

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Brazil vs. Croatia prediction

It’s been quite a remarkable ride for Croatia since the 2018 World Cup. The Checkered Ones made it all the way to the finals in Russia but went beyond 90 minutes in all three of their knockout round victories, two of which came via the shootout.

And wouldn’t you know, Croatia is already 1-for-1 in shootouts in Qatar. 

Croatia deserves credit for the way they were able to weather the storm against Japan and get the match to penalty kicks. Still, the job will be much tougher against a Brazilian attack that has scored seven times and generated 9.5 expected goals through four matches in this tournament. 

That doesn’t bode well for any team. Still, it’s particularly concerning for Croatia, who don’t have the team speed and defensive personnel to contain Vini Jr., Neymar, Richarlison, Raphinha, and the rest of the Brazilian attack. 

Through four matches, Croatia has only conceded twice but the Checkered Ones have been quite lucky to have such a steady defensive record. Croatia has allowed 4.2 expected goals in its last two matches and 5.1 xG overall, so the Checkered Ones are due for some negative regression at some point.

And what’s most concerning is that Croatia’s worst defensive performance came against Belgium, who is the only decent attacking outfit the Croats have played so far. Even though they didn’t score a goal, Belgium created 3.0 xG in a nil-nil draw against Croatia. 

Betting on the World Cup?

Brazil’s attack is in a different stratosphere compared to Belgium’s and should have a ton of joy stretching a slow, tired Croatia defense on Friday morning.

And if Brazil can get on the board somewhat early in this match, Croatia will need to open things up and get out of their comfort zone to try and get back in the match. Typically, Croatia likes to play a methodical style and let Luka Modric control the tempo in the middle of the field. Still, if they fall behind, they’ll take more risks, making them vulnerable in transition.

It may feel like you’re buying high on the Brazilian offense after a four-goal performance against South Korea, but the truth is that there’s still plenty of room for the Selecao to grow offensively in this tournament. That’s a scary notion against what should be a pretty fatigued Croatian side.

Brazil vs. Croatia pick

Brazil Team Total Over 2.5 (+175, FanDuel)