West Ham United vs. Leeds United pick, odds

January 4, 2023

After two terrific seasons, West Ham United finds itself in a surprising relegation fight as we head into the second half of the 2022-23 English Premier League campaign. The Hammers have taken just 14 points from their first 17 matches and entered the week ahead of Nottingham Forest on goal difference.

But West Ham’s actual record is a bit misleading. Although they are just 4-2-11 (W-D-L) with a -9 goal differential, the Hammers sport a +1.6 expected goal (xG) differential, which is the eighth-best mark in the circuit. According to UnderStat, West Ham’s xG differential should have them sitting on 23 points. Some positive regression is to be expected.

The game is set to begin at 2:45 p.m. ET on Wednesday and can be streamed on Peacock.

English Premier League prediction

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And even though Wednesday’s match is on the road, West Ham should fancy an encounter with Leeds United. At its best, Leeds is a frenetic pressing team that wants to force teams into mistakes high up the pitch. But the Peacocks struggle breaking down sides that tend to sit deep and defend, which is exactly what the Hammers will want to do.

West Ham’s offensive output has been disappointing so far this season, but the Hammers should have every opportunity to pad those numbers against Leeds, which ranks 16th in expected goals allowed and 15th in big scoring chances conceded.

This is a tremendous buy-low spot on West Ham.