Trump’s support dips six points after forgoing debate: poll

Former President Donald Trump lost six percentage points of support in a national tracking poll after skipping last week’s first Republican primary debate, though the 77-year-old is still well clear of the rest of the GOP field.

An even 50% of likely Republican primary voters backed Trump in the Emerson College survey out Monday, down from 56% in the poll the outlet released Aug. 19, four days before the showdown at Milwaukee’s Fiserv Forum.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis gained two percentage points from the previous poll and placed second behind Trump with 12% support.

Following the top two were entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy on 9% (down 1% from before the debate), and former Vice President Mike Pence and former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley on 7% each (up 4% and 5% from before the debate, respectively).

“While Trump saw a slight dip in support, the question from this poll is whether this is a blip for Trump or if the other Republican candidates will be able to rally enough support to be competitive for the caucus and primary season,” Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball said in a statement.

“Different candidates have been able to pull varying demographic support from the Trump base,” Kimball added. “For example Mike Pence, who saw an overall four-point bump in voter support, was able to increase his support in the Midwest from 4% to 13% of the vote, while Trump saw his Midwest support drop from 54% to 42% after the debate. Nikki Haley’s support increased from about 2% to 9% among voters over 50 while Trump’s support dropped within this age group from about 56% to 49% after the debate.”

However, the poll also shows Trump leading President Biden in a hypothetical general election matchup by 46% to 44%, with 10% undecided.

“In addition to President Trump crushing all of the other primary candidates by a dominant margin, he has now expanded his lead on Joe Biden in the general election,” Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said in a statement.

“This further proves that President Trump is the only person who can win back the White House, supercharge the economy, secure our border, safeguard communities, and put an end to unnecessary wars.”

Trump announced Aug. 20 that he would not take part in the first debate, citing his commanding polling lead and desire to avoid giving his rivals an opportunity to dogpile on him.

Instead of debating, Trump sat for a lengthy pre-recorded interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson that was posted on X, formerly Twitter, minutes before the debate began.

Trump has skipped debates in the past, missing the last debate before the 2016 Iowa caucuses after objecting to Fox’s choice of Megyn Kelly as a moderator.

After losing the Iowa caucuses to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Trump resumed debating and went on to clinch the party nomination.

Nearly half (48%) of Republican voters said Trump skipping the first debate made no difference to their decision about whether to support him, while 30% indicated it made them less likely to back the former president and 22% said they were more likely to support Trump.

A plurality of Republican primary voters (27%) thought Ramaswamy won the debate, followed by DeSantis (21%), Pence (12%) and Haley (11%).

When asked who they thought lost the debate, 22% of Republican primary voters thought former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie performed the worst, followed by DeSantis (16%), Pence (14%), former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (7%), North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (6%), Ramaswamy (6%), Haley (5%) and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC; 4%)

When asked to choose who they would support among the candidates who made the debate stage, 30% of Republican primary voters opted for DeSantis, followed by Ramaswamy (25%), Pence (16%), Haley (12%), Christie (8%), Scott (5%), Hutchinson (3%) and Burgum (3%).

“When Trump is removed from the GOP ballot test, his voters split between DeSantis at 32% and Ramaswamy at 29%, with Pence at 16%,” Kimball said, “which suggests if Trump was to not run, a race between DeSantis and Ramaswamy could take shape.”

The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters nationwide on Aug. 25-26, with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3 percentage points.