Severe storm threat stretches from Gulf Coast to Great Lakes

Nearly 50 million Americans across 15 states in a 1,000-mile-long swath face the risk of severe weather on Thursday, including a significant risk of tornadoes later in the afternoon across parts of the South.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for parts of southern and eastern Arkansas, extreme southern Illinois, western Kentucky, extreme southeastern Missouri, northwestern Mississippi, and West Tennessee until 12 p.m. CST.

The watch area includes the cities of Little Rock in Arkansas, Paducah in Kentucky, and Memphis in Tennessee.

A second Tornado Watch was issued for portions of extreme eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi, including the cities of Durant, Jackson, Meridian, McComb, and Hattiesburg until 5 p.m. CST.

While the South is no stranger to experiencing severe weather in February, the storm threat stretching into the Great Lakes is a rarity for this time of year.

A line of severe thunderstorms pushed through Oklahoma on Wednesday evening and moved eastward overnight into western Arkansas and Missouri, where the storms produced strong wind gusts and hail.

The storms strengthened as they reached north-central Arkansas early Thursday, prompting multiple Tornado Warnings around 2 a.m. CST.

The National Weather Service in Little Rock, Arkansas, said a storm survey team confirmed an EF-1 tornado near the town of Pindall in Searcy County around 3 a.m. The NWS said information on the official track would be released in the coming days.

Storms in northern Mississippi also became tornado-warned, and hail larger than golf balls fell to the north across parts of West Memphis in Tennessee.

Damaging wind gusts are main threat in Ohio Valley

Storms were ongoing across parts of the Ohio Valley from Tennessee to Ohio on Thursday morning.

Those storms were capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail, and a few Tornado Warnings were issued to the west of Nashville in Middle Tennessee. This round of storms will gradually weaken as the instability in the atmosphere decreases.

However, the FOX Forecast Center said daytime heating will recharge the atmosphere and lead to additional severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. It’s possible this next round of severe storms could congeal into a squall line and sweep east across parts of Indiana and Kentucky, eventually sliding into Ohio during the evening or overnight hours.

The main threat appears to be damaging wind gusts as the storms quickly slide off to the east and wind down early Friday morning.

Strong tornado threat in South on Thursday afternoon

Thunderstorms were also rumbling across Mississippi, Arkansas, and Louisiana on Thursday morning. While those storms pose a severe weather risk, that threat remains low during the morning hours.

But as the day continues, additional severe storms are expected to form across the South, where they could also congeal into a squall line. In addition, supercell thunderstorms could form ahead of the main line of storms across eastern Mississippi and western Alabama.

Strong (EF-2 or higher) tornadoes are possible in that region, mainly between 1 p.m. and 8 p.m. CST, according to the FOX Forecast Center. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and flash flooding are also possible.

The reason strong tornadoes could form is that the weak “cap” currently in place is forecast to break on Thursday afternoon.

“What is a cap?” FOX Weather meteorologist Ian Oliver said. “It’s a layer of warm air aloft, and it acts as a lid on the atmosphere that doesn’t let those storms grow vertically and become strong and eventually severe.”

We didn’t see numerous storms develop on Wednesday because a strong cap failed to break.

“Look at the forecast from Jackson, Mississippi, this morning,” Oliver said. “A lot less dry air, a small cap, but with some of the sunshine that we noted, it looks like into the afternoon that cap breaks. That allows for explosive thunderstorm development.”

The threat of severe weather in Alabama forced Huntsville City Schools to announce the closure of its facilities to staff and students on Thursday as a precaution. The school district also said virtual learning would not occur.

These storms in the South will begin to wind down later Thursday night or early Friday morning.