Prigozhin emerges from revolt as ‘alternative leader,’ won’t stay banished for long: expert

Wagner Group commander Yegevny Prigozhin is now an “alternative leader’’ in Russia — created by President Vladimir Putin himself — and he likely won’t stay banished for long, according to a top former US official. 

Prigozhin has transformed overnight from a cutthroat mercenary chief into a “nationalist, populist leader,” said Michael McFaul, a former US ambassador to Russia under the Obama administration, to “Today” after the rogue commander’s 36-hour revolt against Moscow.

“Putin has now created an alternative leader, and that’s very dangerous for him,” McFaul said, noting Prigozhin’s well-received mutinous statements against Putin posted on Telegram and video footage of him being cheered on by Russian citizens.

“I don’t know how [Putin] is going to control him.” 

Under an agreement brokered by Belarus’s dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, on Saturday, Prigozhin was set to be exiled to the Russia-aligned nation in exchange for Putin not charging him or his men with any crime for their planned coup.

But no one has seen or heard from Prigozhin since — except for slightly-smiling selfies with fans in Rostov-on-Don, a Russian town Wagner soldiers occupied until abandoning their revolt.

Asked about his current whereabouts, Prigozhin’s Concord Management Company told CNN: “He sends his regards to everyone and will answer questions when he has proper communication.” 

Belarusian officials told the network that they did not have any details about Prigozhin’s status in Belarus and could not confirm whether he was already in the country. 

“I don’t think he’s going to go there quietly,” McFaul said about Prigozhin’s exit. “I don’t think he’s going to go there to retire.”

Regardless of Prigozhin’s next steps, experts say the mutiny has severely damaged Putin’s credibility.

“Putin called these guys a traitor. Four hours later, he was negotiating with them,” McFaul said. “We still don’t know the details of that negotiation, but it makes Putin look very weak.

Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at Scotland’s University of St. Andrews, told The Associated Press that it is “hard to see the genie of doubt ever being forced back into the bottle.”

“For a dictatorship built on the idea of unchallenged power, this was an extreme humiliation,” O’Brien said, referring to Putin’s authoritarian government. “So if Prigozhin might have lost in the short term, Putin is likely to be the long-term loser.”

The onetime Putin ally launched his revolt after what he claimed were attacks by Russian soldiers on his mercenaries’ camps in Ukraine on Friday. 

Prigozhin said Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of Russia’s General Staff, had ordered the attacks on his soldiers with rockets, helicopter gunships and artillery after coordinating with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to take out his group.  

Russia’s Defense Ministry denied the allegations.

McFaul noted that the brief revolt may provide at least short-term relief to Ukraine forces. The revolt, plus tanking morale among Russian troops, could provide an opportunity for Kyiv’s counteroffensive to make headway, he said. 

In the long-term, however, he expects little to change in the bloody conflict.  

“Putin is going to fight for as long as he can,” McFaul said. “This won’t change that.” 

With Post wires