Premier League picks, odds: Brentford vs. Manchester City

November 11, 2022

It’s going to be a strange weekend in soccer.

For the first time in history, the English Premier League (and all of the other major competitions in Europe) will go on hiatus until Boxing Day (Dec. 26) so that players can compete for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

That sets up a peculiar match week in which bettors will have to handicap just how much each team will concentrate on the Premier League. It’s only natural for players to have one eye on Qatar 2022, which begins on Sunday, Nov. 20.

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Brentford vs. Manchester City prediction and analysis

If ever there was a time to take a shot on a huge Premier League underdog, it’s this weekend and if there was ever a team that could take advantage of this spot, it’s Brentford.

Known for their industrious attitude and team-first ethos, the Bees are sitting comfortably in the mid-table with 16 points and a -3 goal differential through 14 matches. Those are not blinding numbers by any stretch, but they become more impressive when you consider that this is Brentford’s second-ever season in the Premier League and that they have the smallest payroll in the English first division.

Under Thomas Frank, Brentford play a relentless style of soccer that requires every player to pull in the right direction. It sounds simple, but the fact that you can expect an honest, cohesive effort out of the Bees every time they step out on the pitch immediately raises their floor and ceiling. That’s shown in their performances over the past two seasons as the Bees have performed admirably against Big Six sides. In their first season and a half in the Premier League, the Bees have defeated Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United, and they’ve earned draws against Spurs and Liverpool. The Bees, who are one of 10 teams with a positive expected goal differential in the league, punch up very well.

It would be foolish to expect that City won’t be at the races just because the World Cup is on the horizon, but nine of Pep Guardiola’s 11 normal starters are heading to Qatar, so we could see a lot of rotation for the Cityzens and it wouldn’t be a shock to see a less than stellar effort out of the defending champions.

When you’re backing an underdog at this price you’ll likely need to get lucky. But, there’s also a viable path to success for Brentford in this matchup. The Bees are one of the best teams in the Premier League at creating big scoring chances and they rank fourth in the circuit in expected goals off of set pieces. City’s defense is among the best in the world, but they’ll be missing some key players and Brentford should be able to create enough opportunities in this contest to give themselves a hope at pulling off the upset.