Odds, pick for World Cup opener

November 21, 2022

It is very difficult to get to the knockout stages of a World Cup after losing your opening match. In fact, only 11 percent of teams that failed to get a point in their curtain-raiser made it to the Round of 16 since the tournament adopted its current format in 1998.

That alone puts a ton of pressure on the USMNT to get a result against Wales on Monday. But when you add in the context of how Group B sets up — with England as a massive favorite, Wales and the Americans as a coin flip for second and Iran as the long shot — the showdown between the Welsh and Yanks at Al Rayyan Stadium feels more like an elimination game than a tournament opener.

United States' Christian Pulisic kicks the ball next to Saudi Arabia's Ali Hadi Albulayhi, left, during the international friendly soccer match between Saudi Arabia and United States in Murcia, Spain, Tuesday, Sept. 27, 2022. — USMNT star Christian Pulisic.

As a team, the Americans seem to struggle the most against teams that can win the ball high up the pitch and force the Yanks to defend in transition. That isn’t how the Welsh prefer to play, as they’ll sit back in two low blocks and be very pragmatic about when they want to launch forward.

A patient, conservative approach from Wales is their best path to success against more talented teams and their ability to stay in matches makes them a live underdog at bigger prices, but this isn’t one of those cases.