Newcastle vs. PSG prediction: Champions League odds, pick

Newcastle United’s long-awaited return to the Champions League hasn’t exactly gone to plan.

The Magpies boast a 1-1-2 (W-D-L) record and sit at the bottom of Group F with two matches to play.

Despite that, Newcastle is very much alive in the competition and is just three points back of first-place Borussia Dortmund in the Group of Death.

The odds are still stacked against the Magpies, but they could change the entire complexion of the Champions League with a win in Paris on Tuesday afternoon.

Newcastle vs. PSG prediction

(3 p.m. ET)

The betting market isn’t giving Newcastle much of a chance — the Magpies are sitting at +425 on the three-way moneyline at the time of this writing — but there are some indicators that suggest the oddsmakers are underestimating Newcastle in this massive clash. 

Going on current form alone, you can see why Paris Saint-Germain is a chunky favorite at home Tuesday.

Les Parisiens have won seven of their last eight matches across all competitions and have scored at least three goals in each of those seven victories.

PSG deserves plenty of credit for its current hot streak, but Les Parisiens haven’t faced a difficult schedule of late and they haven’t been nearly as impressive when they needed to step up in weight class.

In fact, PSG has lost two of its last three matches in the Champions League, including a 4-1 drubbing on the road at Newcastle back on Oct. 4. 

That result was supposed to be a landmark moment for Newcastle, one that cemented its place among the elite teams in Europe, but things have gone sideways since that famous night at St. James’ Park. 

The Magpies have gone 4-2-3 across all competitions since their win over PSG in October and they’ve yet to register another point in the Champions League thanks to back-to-back losses to Borussia Dortmund.

Those performances, along with an uninspiring draw against AC Milan in the opening match of the group stages, have raised some questions about whether Newcastle is ready to handle the rigors of the Champions League, especially on the road. 

I think that narrative is rubbish and underestimates where Newcastle is at right now. 

Up until the October international break, Newcastle looked like one of the best teams in the Premier League.

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The results may have been spotty, but the Magpies boasted one of the most impressive statistical portfolios in Europe’s Big 5 Leagues despite playing a really tough schedule out of the gates.

And then, right as Newcastle began to string wins together, the injury bug hit — and hit hard.

Alexander Isak, Callum Wilson, Dan Burn, Sven Botman, Harvey Barnes, Bruno Guimaraes, Miguel Almiron, and Fabian Schar all were sidelined at some point, and all of Newcastle’s momentum was understandably halted. 

And while plenty of those players will miss the trip to Paris, Isak, Almiron, Guimaraes and Schar all came back in the fold over the weekend and wouldn’t you know that Newcastle dominated a surging Chelsea side, 4-1, and beat them on expected goals, 2.3 to 0.6.

It was arguably Newcastle’s best performance of the season and showed that, when healthy, this is one of the world’s best teams. 

The underlying metrics bear that out, too, as Newcastle boasts the third-best expected goal difference in the Premier League despite a brutal schedule and a rash of injuries. 

Newcastle is flying under the radar Tuesday and is well worth a bet at +440 to take down PSG.

THE BET: Newcastle moneyline +440 (BetRivers Sportsbook)