Napoli vs. AC Milan pick: Champions League odds, prediction

There’s been plenty of fantastic stories across the European soccer landscape in 2022-23, but it’s hard to argue against the notion that Napoli has been the most impressive team on the continent when you consider preseason expectations. 

Not only are Gli Azzurri running away with the Serie A title this year, but they entered the Champions League quarterfinals as the third-favorite to win the competition.

Not bad for a team that had triple-digit odds to start the competition. 

Napoli is a -188 favorite to advance to the semifinals over fellow Italian side AC Milan, but the first leg could be tough work as it is on the road and Gli Azzurri will be without star striker Victor Osimhen.

Napoli vs. AC Milan pick

(3 p.m. Eastern)

While Napoli has earned plenty of plaudits for their unexpected run in 2022-23, AC Milan is flying under the radar a bit after winning Serie A last season.

Milan is currently sitting in fifth-place in the Italian top division, but they’ll fancy their chances to make some serious noise in this competition considering they’re on the opposite side of the draw as Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Chelsea. 

That’s been a theme for Milan thus far in this competition as the Rossoneri had a relatively soft group with Chelsea, Salzburg and Dinamo Zagreb and then played an inconsistent and banged-up Tottenham Hotspur side in the Round of 16.

They’ve avoided encounters with the elite teams in this field thus far, though Napoli should be considered one with Osimhen. 

Outside of Osimhen’s injury, another factor that may be causing some money to come in on AC Milan in this tilt is the fact that these two met in Serie A on April 2, with Milan thrashing Napoli, 4-0.

It was just the third loss of the domestic season for Luciano Spalletti’s side. 

It’s an ugly result, but it is a little dangerous to read too much into that match with Napoli basically in cruise control in Serie A. 

Losing Osimhen certainly shrinks Napoli’s margin for error in this spot, but Gli Azzurri’s defense has been so solid this season that you’d feel confident that they can make one or two goals stick. Napoli has allowed just 21 goals on 24.9 xG this season. 

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Tottenham was essentially a pick’em price at AC Milan about a month ago and now we’re seeing Napoli in that same range for this encounter.

Even without Osimhen, Napoli is a stronger team than Tottenham and should be the favorite in this match. 

Napoli vs. AC Milan prediction

Napoli (+190, FanDuel)