Most NH GOPers would vote for Trump if he was convicted

A clear majority of New Hampshire Republican primary voters say they would still cast a ballot for former President Donald Trump even if he is convicted of a felony by voting day — and most would also vote for him if he were in prison on Election Day.

An NHJournal/co-efficient poll released Monday found 62% of GOP primary voters would vote for Trump after a potential felony conviction, while 57% would back him even if he was “serving time in prison during the 2024 general election.”

“To paraphrase Donald Trump, he could stand in the middle of Elm Street [in Manchester, the state’s largest city] and shoot someone and not lose any voters,” veteran GOP strategist Jim Merrill told NHJournal.

Meanwhile, 25% of Republican primary voters would not vote for Trump post-conviction, while 13% of them said they would never vote for the former president under any circumstances.

A slightly higher 29% said they would not vote for the ex-commander-in-chief if he was imprisoned, and 14% said they would never vote for him.

The survey of 862 likely Republican primary voters was conducted Aug 5-7, after the 77-year-old was indicted and arraigned for a third time this year — this time in connection with his attempts to overturn Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 election.

The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.33 percentage points.

Three-quarters of GOP respondents said Trump is innocent of the charges, with 40% calling it a political prosecution and 35% saying he did nothing wrong. Only 25% believe the 45th president is guilty.

Special counsel Jack Smith has also charged the former president with 40 counts of allegedly retaining classified national security documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate and then lying to federal authorities who sought them.

Waltine Nauta, Trump’s valet, was indicted on six counts as a co-conspirator. Carlos De Oliveira, the resort’s property manager, was charged with four counts of helping Nauta conceal some boxes of classified documents and allegedly trying to delete security footage on Trump’s instruction.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg also indicted Trump in March on 34 counts of business fraud for allegedly falsifying records to conceal “hush money” payments before the 2016 election to the porn star Stormy Daniels to keep quiet about a decade-old affair.

According to the NHJournal/co-efficient poll, 43% of New Hampshire Republicans would vote for Trump if the primary election were held today, while the rest of the GOP presidential candidates register single-digit support.

“As a pollster, I wonder if there is any other political figure in America who could generate this level of loyalty,” co-efficient CEO Ryan Munce told NHJournal. “It will be difficult for any Republican to peel away these voters.”

The former president is followed in the poll by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (9%), former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (9%), former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (7%), South Carolina GOP Sen. Tim Scott (5%), entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (5%) and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (4%).

Trump’s former vice president Mike Pence is polling at 3% in New Hampshire among Republican primary voters — the same percentage as those who support “someone else.” Thirteen percent of the voters are undecided.

In the poll, 43% of the respondents identified as traditional Republicans, 28% called themselves Trump Republicans and 22% said they were libertarians. Just 8% identified as Christian.

The survey also showed Trump’s favorability rating among New Hampshire Republican primary voters drop to 57% — down seven points since June, with 33% holding an unfavorable opinion.

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, who decided against entering the 2024 presidential contest earlier this year and will step down as the Granite State’s chief executive in 2025, enjoys a higher favorability rating of 60%, with just 26% of New Hampshire Republicans holding an unfavorable opinion of Sununu.

Nearly half of Granite State Republican primary voters view the age of the Republican frontrunner and President Biden, 80, as an issue, with 34% saying 75 years is too old to be president and 12% saying 65 years is too old for the White House.

A little more than a quarter (28%) said there should be no age limit on holding the highest office in the land, and 25% said 85 years was too old.

With the economy emerging as a key issue in the 2024 race, 40% of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire said both political parties are responsible for the size of the national debt, which sits at nearly $33 trillion.

Another 30% blamed Biden alone for the debt crisis, while 15% blamed Democrats and 8% blamed Republicans. Only 7% blamed Trump.