Manchester City backers might have some slight concerns due to the defensive absences and recent history favoring Manchester United. However, City is playing at such a high level that I can’t see anything happening outside a victory for Pep Guardiola’s men.
From a data standpoint, the Cityzens dominated the last meeting, limiting the Red Devils to just 0.6 expected goals (per fbref.com) or 0.78 xG, according to xGPhilosophy metrics. So, if you take the average of the numbers, you wind up with 0.69 xG from that match. And that’s simply not going to cut it for United when it’s facing an opponent averaging 2.29 xG per game though 27 EPL fixtures.
That said, I’m going to the well one more time with my favorite wager — the single-game parlay — and pairing City on the -275 moneyline with the total staying Under 4.5 combined goals at -125 odds via BetMGM as my top selection.
The total hasn’t cleared 2.5 goals in the past seven tilts between these sides. So, when you add that with the fact there have been two goals or less in five of United’s past six EPL games, I like my chances of this game not hitting five goals.
The play: Single-game parlay — Manchester City -275 & Under 4.5 Goals (-125)