Inter vs. AC Milan odds, predictions

The 2022-23 Champions League is on the verge of reaching its crescendo.

There are four teams left and the sorting hat has dealt us quite the treat on Wednesday as eternal rivals Inter and AC Milan will meet for the first leg of their semifinal encounter.

A two-leg Milan Derby to decide who goes to the finale of the Champions League is not something that happens very often.

Bookmakers have installed Inter as a -150 favorite to advance over Milan and it’s Inter that is a +145 favorite on the three-way moneyline on Wednesday.

Let’s break it down.

Inter vs. AC Milan pick

While technically Inter is a “road favorite” in the first leg, the first thing that bettors need to know about this match is that both AC Milan and Internazionale play in the same stadium — the San Siro — so the home-field advantage gets somewhat negated.

Yes, the “home team” will have more of its fans in the building thanks to ticket allocation, but there’s no travel advantages. Everybody will be sleeping in their own bed.

The other important thing to monitor here is whether or not Rafael Leao will be fit enough to play for AC Milan.

The 23-year-old forward paces the Rossoneri in goals and assists, but he’s questionable to play after he got injured in a match against Lazio over the weekend.

Even if Leao is deemed fit, it is fair to question whether or not Milan has enough offensive firepower to cause problems for this Inter defense. 

The Nerrazzurri come into this fixture riding a five-match winning streak across all competitions and have allowed just one goal in that span.

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In fact, Inter has conceded more than one goal on just one occasion in its last 13 contests and the team’s underlying metrics prove that this has been a well-earned run of form. 

Inter hasn’t allowed a team to go over 1.0 expected goals in its last six contests.

Inter’s attack also has a slight edge in this tilt. While AC Milan ranks inside the top-four in Serie A in goals, expected goals, shots per 90 and big scoring chances, Inter is better in each of those categories.

AC Milan is a young, dynamic side that can turn this two-leg showdown into a track meet, but it seems more likely than not that Inter’s experience and steadiness prove to be the difference.

Inter looks to have some value in this match at +140 or better.

Inter vs. AC Milan prediction

Inter +140 (FanDuel)