Evaluating Team USA futures odds

In normal times, soccer bettors would have already witnessed the World Cup Final.

However, the disposition of this year’s tournament to Qatar means bettors must wait just over four months for the start of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. In positive news, that extra time gives us bettors more time to evaluate the various futures markets available for the quadrennial spectacle.

Today, our focus will be on Team USA — which was drawn into Group B with England, Wales, and Iran — and how we’re going to approach their futures offerings.

Also see: 2022 FIFA World Cup odds

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As it stands, here are the prospective scenarios for the United States. All odds come courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.

Team USA World Cup Odds and Predictions — 2022 FIFA World Cup

Those evaluating the U.S.’s chances in Qatar will remember it failed to qualify for the most recent World Cup in Russia.

However, the team results in the preceding tournament leads me to be somewhat optimistic about their outlook in Qatar. In 2010 in South Africa and 2014 in Brazil, the U.S. reached the knockout round each time before bowing out to Ghana and Belgium, respectively.

Plus, the last time the U.S. featured in the World Cup, it was able to navigate what I have rated as a much more complex group than this. That group, of course, was the U.S., Germany, Portugal, and Ghana. Although this year’s squad is almost entirely different from 2014, there’s still a lot of talent.

Undoubtedly the strength of this group is in attack and midfield, which are anchored by Christian Pulisic (Chelsea), Tyler Adams (Leeds United), and Weston McKennie (Juventus). Plus, in six matches against fellow CONCACAF qualifiers, the U.S. was 3-2-1 (W-L-D) and could see some positive regression based on those fixtures.

Despite finishing with a -1 goal differential in those six fixtures, the U.S. held a +3 advantage in big scoring chances, per fotmob.com. Perhaps most impressively, the U.S. was 1-0-1 (W-L-D) in two matches against Mexico, winning both matches on big scoring chances by a combined 5-2 margin.

If the U.S. brings that level of quality to the group stage, I can easily see it getting through. England is still the class of Group B and should have no problem winning the group — some may be alarmed by a 4-0 Nations League defeat to Hungary, but it wasn’t a full-strength squad.

If the U.S. can steal a point from England in their head-to-head — notably, the U.S. is 1-0-1 (W-L-D) against the Brits in their last two World Cup meetings — and win all three points against Iran, that puts the U.S. in a great position to advance.

I also suspect Wales may be in for some struggles. A mid-season World Cup might affect their older stars (Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey), and I’m not high on the rest of their roster.

For that reason, I’m happy to bet the United States to qualify from Group B (+110). I personally think it’s a coin-flip whether manager Gregg Berhalter’s squad advances, so I see a slight implied probability edge.

However, I struggle to see the U.S. making a deeper run than the round of 16. I’m quite high on both the Netherlands and Senegal from Group A, so regardless of the U.S.’s finishing position, reaching the quarterfinals will be an uphill battle.

Despite a disappointing exit from the Euros last year, the Netherlands is still unbeaten since June 1st (W3-D1), while Senegal is coming off a run to the Africa Cup of Nations Final.

For that reason, I’ll be steering clear of everything beyond the round of 16.