English Premier League weekend best bets

Soccer bettors have another full Premier League slate across the weekend, and boy does this slate feature a big match.

Liverpool will travel to Manchester City Sunday in what will likely decide this season’s champion. Elsewhere, Arsenal and Tottenham battle Brighton and Aston Villa, respectively, as they jockey for a Champions League spot while Chelsea looks to end a two-match losing streak at Southampton.

That being said, here are my two best bets across the whole weekend. All odds subject to change and are reflective at time of writing.

Best Bet No. 1 – Brentford Draw, No Bet (-115) vs. West Ham United

The Hammers are playing off a short week following a Thursday Europa League fixture and I believe Brentford are undervalued here.

This season, the Bees have played incredibly well at home but have come up unlucky in those fixtures. Through 15 matches at the Brentford Community Stadium, manager Thomas Frank’s side owns a -3 goal differential, but a +3.6 expected goal differential, per fbref.com. That latter metric is the 10th-best home xGDiff in the league and four spots better than Brentford’s current table position.

Just in its last four home fixtures played 11v11, Brentford owns a +4.36 xGDiff on a -3 realistic goal differential.

As for its opponents West Ham, it has struggled greatly away from home this season. Entering Sunday’s fixture, manager David Moyes’s side possesses a -4.7 road expected goal differential. Negative regression could be on the way, too, as the Hammers hold a +3 goal differential in those 15 fixtures.

Further, the West Ham attack has sputtered of late, creating less than one expected goal per 90 minutes in matches played since February. Given Brentford has created two expected goals per 90 minutes in its last four matches — including 2.2 xG against Chelsea — I believe the hosts do no worse than a draw Sunday.

Best Bet #2 – Aston Villa/Tottenham Over 2.5 Goals (-115)

Aston Villa total’s have been somewhat finicky this season, but I expect a lot of goals in this fixture.

Since Tottenham’s appointment of Antonio Conte, its attack has performed brilliantly. In 20 total domestic fixtures under Conte, Spurs has generated north of two expected goals per 90 minutes in those matches. Just in the last five Premier League fixtures, Tottenham has registered north of 2.5 xG/90 minutes, per fotmob.com.

Further, the Tottenham attack could see some positive offensive regression soon based on its road performances. Across 15 road matches this season, Spurs have scored 21 goals on 23 expected, per fbref.com.

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All that said, expect goals from hosts Aston Villa here as well. It has created 1.98 expected goals per 90 minutes across its last five Premier League fixtures and 1.77 xG/90 minutes across its last four home fixtures, per fotmob.com. Further, in the reverse fixture at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Villa managed almost 1.2 expected goals against Tottenham’s defense.

For those reasons, I’m shocked you’re not being asked to lay -130 or -135 with the over here. As a result, I’m happy to back a high-scoring affair at what I consider to be a discount offering.