Chelsea vs. Real Madrid odds, predictions for Champions League

A 3-1 win at Stamford Bridge has Real Madrid firmly in the driver’s seat of their Champions League Quarterfinal match with Chelsea. The scene now shifts to the friendly confines of the Bernabeu for Tuesday’s second leg, with Madrid sitting pretty as -1500 favorites to advance to the semi-finals, while Chelsea is +630 to flip the script and get back to the final four for the second year in a row.

Chelsea vs. Real Madrid odds

Odds provided by BetMGM

Match result: Real Madrid +150 | Tie +260 | Chelsea +165

Total goals: Over/Under 2.5 goals (-145/+105)

Both teams to score: Yes -165 | No +120

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Chelsea vs. Real Madrid predictions

While the odds to qualify for the semi-final are wide because of Madrid’s 3-1 lead, the three-way moneyline suggests oddsmakers are having a tough time separating these teams over 90 minutes. Real Madrid is a slight home favorite at +150, with Chelsea priced at +180 and the draw hanging out at +250.  

Trailing Madrid by two goals, the onus in this match falls on Chelsea. The Blues will need to win by two goals to send the second leg to extra-time or by three goals to advance in 90 minutes. Pressing for a multi-goal victory against a cohesive side like Real Madrid isn’t really in Chelsea’s DNA under Thomas Tuchel, but bettors should count out the Blues at their own risk. 

Even though Chelsea has dropped two of their last three matches, their long-term form is quite strong. Since the group stage of the Champions League ended on Dec. 8, Chelsea has notched 15 wins, six draws, and three losses across all competitions. 

It may seem like Madrid is catching Chelsea, who have dropped two of their last three matches, at a good time, but some context should be given to the Blues’ recent wobble. 

Chelsea’s 4-1 loss to in-form Brentford on April 2 came on the heels of an international break that included the final World Cup Qualifiers for many players (after the loss Tuchel commented that his players looked tired from the break), and the stats show that their 3-1 loss to Madrid was closer than the final score implied. Karim Benzema’s magic and a goalkeeping error by Edouard Mendy were the difference in the first leg. 

Including their loss to Brentford, Chelsea is 5-0-1 (Win-Draw-Loss) in their last six matches in the Premier League with a +11 goal difference (16 goals scored, 5 conceded). They’ve only allowed 5.68 expected goals in their last half-dozen EPL matches and have held their opponents to under 1.0 xG in their last five victories in England. 

While that kind of defensive prowess will help out against Madrid, Chelsea will need to have their scoring boots on if they want to make a run at getting back to the semi-finals. A 6-0 win away at Southampton certainly seems well-timed, especially since it saw Chelsea post its highest xG output of the season.

Breaking down Real Madrid is not an easy task, but Los Blancos have allowed an average of 1.47 xG in their last 10 matches. 

Overcoming a 3-1 deficit away at Real Madrid seems like a tall order and there are very few teams in the world that could reasonably make a go of it, but Chelsea is one of the best five or six clubs in the world right now and should be brimming with confidence on the heels of a six-goal outburst over the weekend. The Blues are not dead, yet.

Chelsea vs. Real Madrid prediction: Chelsea to Advance +630 (FanDuel)