Best bets for Leipzig vs. Atalanta

Liverpool, Manchester City, Real Madrid, and Villarreal are your Champions League semifinalists. Now, it’s time to fill the four spots available in the Europa League’s penultimate round.

Thursday’s slate is ripe with intrigue as three ties enter the second leg level while only one goal separates Braga and Rangers in the fourth tie. Translation? Neutrals should be in for a great round of second legs.

But we’re not here to talk about who’s going through. Rather, we’re here to provide best bets for the round.

I’m choosing to steer clear of all eight available sides and focus on the totals as I believe that’s where the value lies. So without further ado, here are my two best bets.

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Best Bet #1 – Atalanta BC/RB Leipzig Over 2.5 Goals (-146)

Somehow, someway this game did not clear this total in the first leg at RB Arena, but I’m expecting fireworks in Italy.

A 1-1 draw was the result in the opening leg, but it simultaneously saw five combined expected goals – including at least two xG for each side – and six total big scoring chances, per fotmob.com. Additionally, Leipzig and Atalanta produced 34 total shots, three of which rocketed off the post, and a missed penalty for Leipzig.

Plus, both sides arrive in strong offensive form. Leipzig has generated 1.64 expected goals per 90 minutes in its last 10 fixtures in all competitions, while Atalanta created 1.34 expected goals per 90 minutes in its seven fixtures across all competitions.

Manager Gian Piero Gasperini’s side has also created at least one expected goal in 12 of its last 16 fixtures while Leipzig has cleared the same benchmark in 12 of 15 fixtures this calendar year.

But these defenses have also struggled to hold up and have played some high-event games. In those same 15 fixtures, Leipzig matches are averaging 2.6 combined xG while the 16 Atalanta fixtures have seen 2.3 combined xG on average.

Although it’s a high price to lay here, I’ll be shocked if this game proves low-scoring. All three Leipzig Europa fixtures have cleared 2.5 combined expected goals while three straight Atalanta Europa fixtures have seen at least 2.2.

Money has been coming in on this total leading to even more inflated odds. However, FanDuel is offering the best line on this total at -146.

Best Bet #2 – Lyon Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+110) vs. West Ham United

Bettors can basically ignore the underlying metrics from the first leg as Lyon played almost an entire half-a-man-up. However, I expect Lyon’s attack will dominate at home.

The French outfit, which currently sits 10th in Ligue 1, has produced the most expected goals at home in its domestic competition. Of further concern is the fact positive offensive regression could be on the way for Lyon, which has scored 36 home goals on 40.2 expected in Ligue 1 + the Europa League.

Additionally, 94 days have passed since Lyon last generated under 1.3 expected goals on home turf. The last time it failed to generate at least one xG at home? April 25, 2021, against Lille. Yes, you read that right – Lyon has created at least one xG in every home fixture this season.

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On the flip-side, West Ham’s road defense has played questionable at best. Although the competition in England is much stronger than in France, the Hammers have still allowed the sixth-most road expected goals in Premier League play this season. Plus, manager David Moyes’ side has conceded at least one xG in three straight Europa League fixtures.

Given West Ham also conceded 1.08 xGA in the half played at even strength in the first leg, expect Lyon to bag multiple goals in a friendlier environment.

At plus-money, DraftKings is offering great value on this team’s total prop.