HomeSportsArsenal vs. Newcastle prediction: Premier League odds, pick
Arsenal vs. Newcastle prediction: Premier League odds, pick
November 4, 2023
It’s too early to call Saturday’s headliner between Newcastle United and Arsenal a “six-pointer,” but there’s no doubt that the stakes are quite high when you consider that both of these teams will fancy themselves as a title contender, especially with the way that Manchester City has started the season.
Arsenal is currently tied with City for second-place, two points behind Tottenham Hotspur, while Newcastle is seven points adrift of the Gunners and nine back of Spurs.
It may not be a must-win match for Newcastle given we’re still in the early stages of the season, but it’s not all that far off. It’s very hard to make up a double-digit deficit in the Premier League.
Newcastle is a +180 home underdog on Saturday afternoon.
Newcastle vs. Arsenal prediction
(1:30 p.m. ET. NBC)
Arsenal are one of the best teams in all of Europe and are second in the Premier League through 10 matches, but this does seem like a situation where the wrong side is favored.
While Arsenal do boast the better record and are one of two unbeaten sides in the league through 10 matches, their statistical portfolio is not that much better than Newcastle’s to date.
In fact, you could make a reasonable case that the Magpies have put together a more impressive body of work when it comes to their underlying data.
Arsenal has one of the best defenses in the world — they are the best team in the Premier League at suppressing big scoring chances and rank first in non-penalty expected goals against — but Newcastle’s attack is just as good going the other way.
No team creates more high-quality opportunities than the Magpies, who also rank first in expected goals for per 90 minutes this season.
It’ll be strength against strength when Newcastle has the ball, but the same can’t be said when Arsenal is in possession.
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Because of their defensive acumen, the Gunners do not need to be an elite offensive side, but ranking 10th in non-penalty expected goals for and ninth in big-scoring chances created does not bode well for them in a matchup against a team that poses some serious challenges to their defense.
Newcastle has a great home-field advantage and is one of the best teams in the world, so I’m still wondering why they’re an underdog in this spot.