Arsenal vs. Everton prediction: Premier League pick Saturday

It’s been another tumultuous season for Everton Football Club. The Toffees, who staved off relegation on the penultimate matchday of last season, are in the drop zone once again, and oddsmakers don’t believe they’ll make it out this time around. Everton is -188 to be relegated at the end of the campaign.

At the other end of the board stand Arsenal, who are odds-on to win the Premier League and have lost just one time in their first 19 matches of the season. 

All the numbers for this match will point to a runaway win for Arsenal, but this could be a tricky spot for the Gunners. 

Can Sean Dyche pull off the stunning upset in his debut as Everton manager?

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Arsenal vs. Everton prediction

(7:30 a.m. ET, Saturday, USA Network)

One thing that was clear about Everton under Frank Lampard is that the team lacked a coherent vision or plan. In their best moments under Lampard, the Toffees played a more rigid defensive style and defended as a unit. But that wasn’t what Lampard wanted out of his side, preferring to try and play a more free-flowing style that was easy on the eye.

The shift in tactics from one game to the next seemed to take its toll on the team, as the Toffees often looked out of ideas and were stuck between two minds of what they wanted to do once they got on the ball.

That should all change under Dyche. The Scot will have his critics for playing too conservatively, but there’s no questioning that he’s a man with a clear plan. That should go a long way to helping Everton find more success down the stretch. 

And perhaps most importantly for a team in a relegation fight, Dyche will raise the floor for Everton defensively. The Toffees currently sit second-to-last in the Premier League in expected goals allowed and big-scoring chances conceded. Dyche should fix those problems.

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For the most part, bettors should stick to their numbers and let them guide you to your decisions. But there are times when you need to consider outside circumstances, and this coaching change is certainly one of those moments. Everton’s best showings this season — draws against Liverpool and Manchester City — came in matches where the Toffees were committed to playing a structured defensive game, and everyone was on the same page.

Whether or not Everton can repeat those performances on Saturday remains to be seen, but this should be an inspired effort in front of a frenzied crowd, and getting +700 on the home team in these circumstances seems worth a shot.

Arsenal vs. Everton pick

Everton +700 (BetMGM)