EPL odds, predictions, best bets: Leicester City headlines

The Premier League treated soccer bettors to a midweek appetizer before a full slate of games kicks off this weekend.

Few bigger storylines emerged from play on Tuesday-Thursday than Liverpool’s shellacking of Manchester United which was followed by Arsenal’s shocking upset over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

Headlining the weekend card is Manchester United’s visit to the Emirates to battle Arsenal as well as a Merseyside Derby at Anfield along with Chelsea-West Ham at the Bridge. However, I’m looking elsewhere for my best bets, so let’s not delay and dive into my selections.

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Best Bet #1 – Leicester City/Aston Villa Over 2.5 Goals (-125)

Odds provided by BetMGM

I’m expecting nothing less than pure chaos at the King Power Stadium Saturday and genuinely believe this price is a bargain.

We’ll begin with visiting Aston Villa, whose recent offensive performances have proved nothing short of marvelous. Across its past eight Premier League fixtures, manager Steven Gerrard’s side has created 1.45 expected goals per 90 minutes, up from an average of 1.16 xG/90 on the season as a whole, per fbref.com.

Additionally, only once in that eight-game span has Villa’s opponent held them under one expected goal. It has also generated at least 1.5 xG in two straight fixtures against Wolves and Tottenham, which own defenses that are nothing to sneeze at.

However, for as good as Villa’s attack has performed, its defense has left a lot to be desired. Gerrard’s squad has conceded at least one expected goal in four straight fixtures, including two straight away from home.

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That won’t be good enough against a Leicester City attack that – for all its problems this season – has played very well at the King Power. It has created at least one expected goal in five of its last six on home soil and has notched at least two tallies in two of its last three and four of its last six at home.

Add in that two straight fixtures between these sides have surpassed this benchmark, and I’d play this up to -135.

Best Bet #2 – Brentford/Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals (-108)

Odds provided by FanDuel

The reverse fixture at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium saw the hosts claim all three points in a 2-0 victory, but this Brentford team has improved drastically since.

Much like Aston Villa, Brentford’s attack has caught fire of late after some key players returned from injury. Across its past six Premier League fixtures, manager Thomas Frank’s side has generated 1.75 expected goals per 90 minutes, up from a season-long average of 1.23 xG/90, again per fbref.com.

Even if you take out the three fixtures against current relegation sides, Brentford’s xG/90 total only drops to 1.73 in three matches against Chelsea, West Ham and Leicester City. Plus, the Bees attack remains due for some positive offensive regression at home. Across 16 fixtures at the Brentford Community Stadium, it has scored 18 goals, but on nearly 22 expected. It has also created at least one expected goal in two straight and five of the last six on home soil.

That said, this Spurs attack has played outstanding since the beginning of March. In seven such fixtures, manager Antonio Conte’s side has notched at least two expected goals in four and at least one xG in six.

Its last fixture against Brighton (1-0 loss, only 0.4 xG) left a lot to be desired, but the fact remains that was the first time under Conte Spurs created under 0.8 xG against a bottom-half side.

For those reasons, expect a goal-fest Saturday at the Brentford Community Stadium.