Manchester City vs. Real Madrid odds, pick

Manchester City and Real Madrid begin their two-leg Champions League semifinal on Tuesday afternoon. City are prohibitive -220 favorites on the three-way moneyline for the first leg, with Real Madrid coming back at +550 and the draw sitting with odds of +360. Oddsmakers currently have City at -245 to advance to the final, with Madrid at +195.

While City have looked like one of the best teams in the world throughout their season, Real Madrid have achieved their results in a different fashion. Los Blancos are runaway winners in La Liga, but their expected goal differential is second-best in Spain and suggests that Real Madrid is a bit fortunate to have such a big cushion over Atletico Madrid and Barcelona.

One benefit of having the league title wrapped up is it means that Madrid have been able to focus solely on the Champions League, while City continue to play high-stakes matches in the Premier League in their quest to hold off Liverpool, who are one point back.

Madrid’s best path to success in this fixture is to sit back and allow City the lion’s share of possession. Manchester City faced a similar predicament in their quarterfinal against Atletico Madrid, but opted for a conservative approach and were able to ride out some bumpy moments en route to a 1-0 victory across the two matches. The expected goals (xG) for City’s two matches against Atleti ended 1.8 to 1.0 in the Cityzens’ favor, so it’s not like either side was wasting chances.

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Real Madrid will offer more going forward than Atleti did, but because Madrid won’t press City and will likely just rely on their defensive posture and try to hit on the counter-attack, this match should be pretty low-event, as City won’t want to risk making a mistake and giving Real Madrid’s clinical offense many chances on the counter.

That approach, hanging around in matches and weathering the storm until Karim Benzema scores, has worked for Real Madrid against PSG and Chelsea, but City are such a sound defensive unit that it’s hard to imagine Madrid getting the type of openings that they saw in the past two knockout rounds. 

Given the way these two teams are likely to approach the first leg, there are only so many paths this match could follow. A bet on the Under 2.5 (+115) or even a punt on the game ending 0-0 at +1800 are worth exploring. And if you’re into live-betting, taking a live under if there’s an early goal is also a viable strategy for this encounter.

The Bet: Under 2.5 (+100) | Exact Score: 0-0 (+1800)