Sub-zero Iowa temperatures yield lowest caucus voter turnout in decades

Arctic conditions led to the lowest turnout in decades for the Iowa Republican caucuses Monday night, with a little more than 110,000 voters casting ballots for their chosen candidate, according to the state GOP.

Temperatures across the Hawkeye State hovered between a high of 1 degree Fahrenheit and a low of minus 8 — with wicked winds making it feel like 25 below, according to the National Weather Service and Fox Weather.

Less than 19% of the state’s active Republican electorate — more than 594,000 in number, according to the Iowa secretary of state’s office — braved the deep freeze to caucus at 1,657 precinct locations.

But voters still showed up in higher numbers than in 2000, when around 86,000 Iowa Republicans cast ballots in temperatures that reached a low of 5 degrees to hand then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush a win in the leadoff GOP contest.

Bush went on to clinch the Republican Party nomination that year, becoming one of three contested Iowa caucus winners to do so, along with President Gerald Ford in 1976 and Kansas Sen. Bob Dole in 1996.

The 2024 Iowa caucuses also had a few thousand more Republicans in attendance than in 1996, 1988 and 1980 — though turnout in those years drew from a slightly smaller state population.

Monday’s Republican turnout didn’t come close to the record set in 2016, when nearly 187,000 people caucused to deliver a narrow win to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who later lost the nomination to future President Donald Trump.

More than 121,000 voted in the Iowa Republican caucuses in 2012, and roughly 118,000 turned out in 2008.

The Iowa Republican caucus did not take place during Bush’s presidential re-election campaign in 2004, and Trump earned all but one delegate in the Hawkeye State in 2020, with former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld nabbing the remainder before suspending his campaign the following month.

On Monday, media outlets called the Iowa race for Trump just 30 minutes after caucus meetings began. The former president went on to win with 51.0% support, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis came in second place at 21.2%.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley won 19.1% of the GOP vote, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy won 7.7% before suspending his campaign and endorsing Trump.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie suspended his own campaign last week, but has not announced an endorsement of one of the remaining candidates — though data indicates his voters will shift to back Haley.

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who received just 191 votes, dropped out Tuesday morning after the results came in.

Texas pastor and businessman Ryan Binkley earned 774 votes, but has yet to suspend his campaign.