Trump still has massive GOP primary lead — although he’d be neck and neck vs. Biden: new poll

Former President Donald Trump still had a huge lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the GOP presidential primary even after his third indictment last week over the Jan. 6 riots, a new poll shows.

The August Morning Consult survey released Tuesday was conducted before Monday’s fourth indictment of Trump, which involves alleged election-tampering in Georgia.

The survey handed Trump the kind of huge lead he has consistently been enjoying, with 57% of potential Republican primary voters saying they would support the former president, whereas just 16% threw their backing behind the Florida governor.

But the poll suggested it would be a neck-and-neck race between Trump and Democratic President Biden if the election were held today.

Forty-three percent of registered voters said they would cast a ballot for Biden, compared with 41% who say they would back Trump and 37% who would back DeSantis. With the survey’s margin of error at plus or minus 1 percentage point, that’s about a dead heat for Biden and Trump.

As for other top GOP primary-race contenders, the poll had entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy in third place behind Trump and DeSantis with 9% support, followed by former Vice President Mike Pence (7%), former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (3%), former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (3%) and South Carolina GOP Sen. Tim Scott (3%).

Morning Consult conducted the survey from Aug. 11 to 13, with 3,064 likely Republican primary voters weighing in on the GOP presidential contenders. There was a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points in that case.

More than 5,000 registered voters were asked for their presidential pick in the 2024 general election over the same time period, with an unweighted margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.

The poll comes the day after an Atlanta prosecutor indicted the former president on 13 counts for his alleged attempts to overturn his 2020 electoral loss in Georgia on charges of racketeering, conspiracy, false statements and asking a public official to violate their oath of office.

Trump, 77, DeSantis, 44, and Ramaswamy, 38, have qualified under the Republican National Committee donor and polling requirements for the first GOP primary debate, though the former president has not yet committed to attending.

Other Republican hopefuls — former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez — are polling at 1% support among potential GOP primary voters, the survey showed. Former Texas Rep. Will Hurd had no support.

DeSantis, Ramaswamy, Haley and Burgum have also signed onto the RNC loyalty pledge to support the eventual Republican Party nominee. Trump and Christie have not signed the pledge.

Potential GOP primary voters by 36% support the Florida governor as their second choice for their party’s nomination. They support Ramaswamy by 23%, Pence by 11%, Haley by 5% and Scott by 5%. 14% were undecided.

Likely Republican voters have the most unfavorable view of Christie, with 47% saying they disliked the former New Jersey governor and 28% saying they had a favorable opinion.

Pence was the second-most disliked GOP candidate among those voters, with 40% citing an unfavorable opinion and 48% citing a favorable opinion.

Just 12% of potential GOP primary voters had an unfavorable opinion of Scott — the lowest rating of any Republican presidential candidate.

The favorability ratings were culled from 810 potential Republican primary voters between Aug. 10 and 13, with an unweighted margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Forty-eight percent of those voters also said they had seen, read or heard something negative about Trump in the days leading up to his fourth indictment Monday.

Thirty-five percent said the same of Pence, 31% said the same of Christie, and 29% said the same of DeSantis over the same time period.

Trump, the country’s 45th president, became the first sitting or former commander-in-chief to be charged with a crime when he was indicted in April by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg for allegedly making “hush money” payments to the porn star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election to cover up a decade-old affair.

Special counsel Jack Smith has also indicted Trump in two separate federal cases for allegedly withholding classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate and trying to reverse 2020 election results in Washington, DC.