Tropical disturbance in Atlantic monitored for possible development, potential impacts to US coast

July 25, 2023

A tropical disturbance spotted in the Atlantic Ocean has a slight chance it could slowly develop while heading toward the southeastern U.S. over the next 5 to 7 days, hurricane forecasters warn.

The National Hurricane Center is currently giving the disturbance about a 20% chance of developing into a tropical system, but there are some atmospheric challenges that this system would have to get over to actually develop.

“Right now, it’s just an area of thunderstorms that’s off the Southeast coastline,” FOX Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin said. “But there’s this small window where we could see the dust really calm down off the southeast coastline and also the wind shear drop, which will allow for the slight potential, maybe seeing something develop.”

Working against development is the presence of wind shear off to the north and west of the storm, which would work to pull apart the system

“But if this little area of interest could actually tap into (a nearby) area where we have a lower wind shear, that would allow for possibly some development,” she said.

The FOX Forecast Center said there’s a small window where this could happen as we get closer to Thursday and Friday.

tropical disturbance graphic — The tropical disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean could slowly develop over the next week, eventually impacting the US.

“Most of our computer models do not develop a tropical system out of this,” Merwin said. “But again, there’s a chance.”

Bermuda High could steer storm close to U.S.

If something were to develop, there is a ridge of high pressure – a Bermuda high – that is off to the east, and that would make this a concern for the East Coast if this tropical disturbance were to develop further as it would block the storm from pushing back out away from the coastline, Merwin adds.